Gaza Stripped

Scary Sunday speculation from the WaPo suggesting that Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza, and our unwavering support of Sharon's plan, means that responsibility for Gaza may very well fall upon us.

[O]ne of the articles of Sharon's disengagement plan declares that it will "obviate the claims about Israel with regard to its responsibility for the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip."

But who's going to take over that responsibility? Not the tattered Palestinian Authority. Not cautious Egypt, which once ruled Gaza. Instead, de facto responsibility for what happens in Gaza once Israel withdraws will fall to the United States. That's the hidden meaning in the president's letter of assurance to Sharon saying that the United States will lead an international effort to build the capacity and will of Palestinian institutions to fight terrorism and prevent the areas from which Israel withdraws from posing a threat.

I have no idea whether or not the Palestinian Authority's presence is as "tattered" as writer Martin Indyk claims, but I'm willing to believe that regardless, the opportunity for terrorist types will be absolutely magnetic. Ergo, Bush wants Sharon to forestall the withdrawal until after the elections:

...Bush's endorsement of the Sharon plan means that the United States will end up inheriting the problems of Gaza. Recognizing that Bush's new posture carries real consequences, the National Security Council staff has plunged into the most intensive negotiations with Israeli officials since the breakdown of Clinton-era efforts. And in a sign of White House anxiety about those consequences, Bush has asked Sharon to postpone the Gaza disengagement until after the U.S. elections, according to Israeli news reports.

Now, Indyk's thesis is predicated upon two claims: first, that Gaza will go badly once Israel jets. Sounds more or less right, especially when you consider that Israel isn't fully disengaging:

Heightening the president's new Gaza security dilemma is the fact that Israel is planning to retain control of the "Philadelphi" corridor that separates Gaza from Egypt, as well as the sea and air space around Gaza, in order to prevent the smuggling of terrorists and weapons into and out of the Strip. But this will enable the terrorist groups within Gaza to claim justification for continuing their attacks on Israel and refusing to disarm on the grounds that Israel has not really ended its occupation.

Stir in the PA's inability to police its terrorist factions and you have all the makings of the nasty sort of terrorist-backing state that Bush is convinced he fought in Iraq. The second condition to Indyk's scenario is that Bush would actually engage this sort of state if he saw one rising, or, more importantly, do what was necessary to prevent it from being born. (Cf. Afghanistan.)

Frankly, I'll set the idle speculation aside and say that Sharon's plan sounds bad for us, really bad for Blair, and really terrible for I/P.

Posted by Kriston at April 26, 2004 2:00 PM